Climate scenario analysis and application guide

Assessing climate transition risks and testing the resilience of strategies and business models depends on exploring how the future could unfold. Scenario analysis is an important tool for understanding how companies might perform under different plausible climate futures. While the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is steadily trending toward more quantitative scenario analysis, approaches remain inconsistent and not comparable due to varying scenario applications. Companies need new tools to better assess risks and opportunities, build transition plans and report in line with recommendations from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).

WBCSD convened 13 leading Food, Agriculture and Forest Products companies to develop a set of new climate transition scenarios for these sectors. The scenarios are available through an online Climate Scenario Tool enabling users to navigate specific variables (e.g., commodities and regions) and compare, visualize and download output data (e.g., production, prices and emissions).

The Climate Scenario Tool is accompanied by a Scenario Analysis and Application Guide describing use cases for the scenarios. The primary objective of the guide is to build an understanding of the features and value of the Climate Scenario Tool and the outputs of scenario analysis. The target audience is primarily business functions and stakeholders looking to build their capabilities with scenario analysis to inform business decisions, strategies and activities related to climate transition. The guide provides important background as both an introduction for those new to climate scenarios and context for more experienced climate analysts that may use the tool to improve their analysis. More details on the technical aspects of the scenario modeling and underlying methodology are available in the Technical Guide.

Access the Climate Scenario Tool at https://climatescenariocatalogue.org.