The Profit of Preparedness: Resilience in Supply Chains, Finance, and AI

After an unprecedented summer marked by intense heatwaves, devastating floods, and disrupted logistics, the concept of resilience has become more than just a theoretical idea; it’s now a critical concern for boardrooms and a balance-sheet question. The dialogue has evolved from simply asking, “How do we demonstrate responsibility?” to a more pressing question: “How can we accurately quantify and account for climate-related costs at the product level, rather than letting these costs slip through the cracks?”

COP30 in Brazil stands out as a pivotal moment where global challenges and the need for a transition come into focus. The leaders keeping an eye on aren’t just those making sweeping promises, but rather those integrating resilience into their core business operations, across supply chains, finance, and with the help of AI.

These three value drivers are where sustainability equals ROI:

1. Supply chains, where your resilience is tested first

Supply chains are where the operational reality of disruptions plays out. Shipment reroutes, altered deadlines, and rising raw material costs translate to balance sheets as premiums, downtime, and cashflow.

Companies are feeling the impact: more than half of firms surveyed by Morgan Stanley experienced climate impacts on operations within the past year, including increased costs, worker disturbance, and revenue losses. BCG estimates that climate-related supply chain disruptions already cost companies an average of $182 million annually.

These shocks are not abstract. When a drought shrank the River Rhine in 2022, shipping capacity fell by half, forcing costly reroutes for European manufacturers. US agribusiness faced similar disruptions when the Mississippi River levels dropped from 2022-2023, delaying exports and inflating logistics costs.

As climate adaptation and mitigation climb up corporate priority lists, the agenda of today’s COO is shifting. Here’s my view on the key steps that unlock the real business value of sustainability:

• Gain full visibility. Investing in tools that increase traceability and real-time awareness of emissions and resources is crucial; this will allow you to pinpoint vulnerabilities, diversify sourcing, strengthen transparency and anticipate risks before they escalate.
• Link resilience metrics to measurable outcomes. Your value chain is your source of measurable sustainability value. Metrics that go beyond avoiding losses (i.e. reduced insurance premiums, increased operational agility, customer trust) turn this visibility into actionable insight. SAP Customer Nestlé has strengthened their resilience with real-time, connected operations across its global supply chain with a cloud-first environment and integrated analytics.

With tools in place and metrics aligned to outcomes, COOs can optimize value chains beyond just efficiency: diversifying suppliers in geographies with higher exposure to disruptions, building redundancy where needed, and securing future advantage.

Resilience isn’t just defensive. A supply chain that adapts faster than your competitors’ is a growth driver. Redesigned value chains and networks transform risk management into a source of long-term ROI, and sustainability data is an untapped lever.

2. Finance, the place climate risk becomes line-item reality

If supply chains are where vulnerabilities show up operationally, finance is where they land with impact and finality. Today’s CFO cannot steer the business on carbon numbers alone. Making this shift means answering questions like:

• “How do we integrate sustainability data into the same systems that manage profit centers, cost centers, and balance sheets?” Many disclosures still rely on proxy data, such as industry averages, which can result in deviations of 30-40% or more from real values. SAP Green Ledger  brings granular carbon insights into core finance processes, enabling organizations to drive decarbonization and operationalize sustainability at scale. This means companies can understand not only how much carbon they emit, but also how it affects risk exposure and margins.
• “How do we measure progress toward decarbonization goals to strengthen our position in carbon-sensitive markets?” Those with verifiable sustainability data have preferential access to capital. Sustainable bonds and loans surpassed $1.6 trillion in 2024 as demonstrable decarbonization strategies often lowered financing costs.

Companies that treat sustainability data as a financial asset, connected to auditable accounting principles, are transforming sustainability from a compliance exercise into a growth driver.

The organizations that get this right are already lowering the cost of capital and outperforming their peers.

3. AI, your resilience accelerator

AI plus sustainability is a classic ROI equation. One type of return on investment is how much better you get at predicting physical climate risk, then prepare and respond with speed and agility. According to McKinsey, AI (especially generative AI) could generate $2.6 to $4.4 trillion annually in economic benefits, and up to $6.1 to $7.9 trillion when considering full productivity impact across industries.

However, there is a gap between AI adoption and opportunity. According to Accenture, only 14% of companies today are using AI to reduce their carbon emissions, but 65% believe they will do this in the future.

Opportunities for AI adoption to drive ROI and drive competitive advantage are huge:

Deliver immediate ROI through automation and accuracy

AI streamlines supplier data, automatically handles permits, and reduces compliance costs. SAP capabilities such as AI-assisted permit management and AI-assisted compliance information processing improve speed and accuracy of information extraction and processing, while AI-assisted ESG report generation allows you to report on your progress in minutes. Automotive industry company Martur Fompak has used business AI to achieve a 52% reduction in transportation-related carbon emissions and to calculate carbon footprints more than 50 times faster. Another example is msg Global Solutions AG, whose Greenwashing Detector solution leverages generative AI to validate reports and detect potential greenwashing.

Unlock enterprise-wide intelligence for long-term ROI

For companies that go a step further to deeply ingrain AI implementation, AI contextualizes and integrates sustainability data across ERP systems to inform decisions on risk, resilience, and opportunity. Tools like AI-enabled supplier validation, AI-powered emissions factor mapping, and AI-assisted carbon emission analysis help identify risk and opportunity so that you can act on sustainability across the enterprise. This drives both day-to-day operations, like smarter procurement, as well as long-term strategy, like identifying and reducing emissions at the source.

In times of disruption, the early mover captures the value. AI isn’t just an efficiency tool, but a proactive warning system enabling you to see risk sooner, act faster, and optimize better.

Climate risk doesn’t live in theory. It shows up in supply chains, operations, and increasingly, line items on financial statements. Resilience is no longer just a safeguard, but a source of growth, efficiency, and competitive edge. 

At COP30, leaders across different industries are preparing for a new normal, focusing on managing environmental, regulatory, and market risks as their top investment priorities.

More information about SAP Sustainability can be found here.