10%-15% cut 'likely' at Copenhagen

Reuters, 3 July 2009 - As major economies prepare to discuss their greenhouse gas targets at a meeting in Italy next week, an Australian expert says on present data a global agreement for developed countries to cut emissions by 10%-15% is the likely outcome of UN talks in Copenhagen in December.

Dr Andrew McIntosh from Australian National University's Climate Change Law and Policy Centre told Carbon Extra Russia's unveiling of a 2020 target of a 15% emissions cut on 1990 levels, revealed by President Dmitry Medvedev last month, combined with an assumed US target of a 25% cut on its 2005 levels, meant "we're going into Copenhagen at around a 10%-15%" global cut on 1990 emissions levels.

McIntosh based his calculations on developed nations' stated commitments to emission reduction targets or, if they were not clear, the most likely estimate of emissions cuts they would agree to, to determine "what cuts developed countries as a collective whole would be aiming for in 2020".

Given Russia's commitment "it looks like it's somewhere between 10%-15% on 1990", McIntosh said.

But "does Russia actually mean what it says?" he asked.

Another "big X factor" in predicting the outcome of the Copenhagen talks was "what the US eventually signs up to", he said.

President Barack Obama may choose an abatement target of 25% on 2005 levels.

But "if the US signs up for a 17% cut by 2020 then we're back to an 11%" cut on 1990 levels in a global agreement, McIntosh said.

The US Waxman-Markey emissions trading scheme bill, passed by the US lower house on Friday, would cut emissions by 17% on 2005 levels by 2020.

The bill also directs the US Government to use permit revenue to cut emissions by another 10% by 2020 by buying international carbon credits. That would make the US target 27% on 2005 levels, or 19% on 1990 levels by 2020.

Next week's meeting of major economies is one of a series involving 16 developed countries, including Australia, organised by US President Obama in the lead-up to the Copenhagen talks.

Author Deborah Nesbitt, Carbon Extra Publication Date 3 Jul 2009 Document Type News articles Issue/Topic Energy & Climate Include In RSS Business & Sustainable Development News Energy & Climate News